Spoiler alert it already has. This is not a glib answer but a comment on the nature of the conflict. The US mission to wrench Venezuelas Bolivarian Revolution out from its roots has a quarter-century pedigree. Stick around to the end of the article for an assessment of the likelihood of an overt military attack inside Venezuela. But first a little historical context.

By Roger D. Harris

Regime change has failedso far

In 2002, aUS-backedmilitary coup temporarily ousted Hugo Chvez. A mere 47 hours later, the people of Venezuela spontaneously arose and returned their rightfully elected president.

Washington has persistently interfered in the internal affairs of Venezuela, pouringmillions of dollarsto rig elections. Yet, the perpetually divided and unpopular US-fostered opposition is moreisolated and discreditedthan ever.

Undeterred by its 2002 failed coup, the US hasrepeatedly sponsoredattempts to achieve by violence what they could not do by interfering in Venezuelan elections. In 2020, the so-called "Operation Gideon was designed to kidnap President Maduro. Derisively dubbed theBay of Piglets, this coup attempt along with numerous others failed. Local fisher folk apprehended the mercenaries.

Among the many diplomatic efforts at regime change by Washington, theLima Groupwas cobbled together in 2017. The cabal of 11 rightwing Latin American states and Canada aspired to facilitate a peaceful exit to oust Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro. By 2021, nearly half of the Lima Group countries had elected progressive governments and that diplomatic offensive fizzled.

Meanwhile in 2019, the US anointed unknown 35-year-oldJuan Guaidas interim president of Venezuela. On December 21, 2022, his own opposition found the puppet so toxic and corrupt that they gave him the boot.

Previously in 2015, Barack Obama certified that Venezuela was an extraordinary threat to US national security. He imposed unilateral coercive measures designed to destroy the Venezuelan economy. Euphemistically called sanctions, this form of collective punishment isillegalunder international law. Regardless, each subsequent US president has continued and to varying degrees augmented the economic warfare.

Combined with oil commodity prices cratering the source of almost all of its foreign earnings Venezuela experienced the largest peacetime economic contraction in recent world history. Inflation reached2,000,000%and the days of the Bolivian Revolution appeared to be numbered. However by 2023, in a heroic effort under the resolute political leadership of President Maduro, Venezuela reversed the economic freefall and recorded a 5% GDP growth rate, which has continued in a positive direction.

US trapped in its imperial imperative

Without further detailing the multitude of illegal US regime-change machinations, it is sufficient to say that the very successes of the Venezuelans have forced Uncle Sam to escalate the conflict. Forced because, as an imperial power, the United States is structurally driven by its inherent pursuit of hegemony rule over all potential challengers. This compulsion is codified in its official security doctrine offull-spectrum dominance.

Venezuela has indeed been a challenge. Even before Hugo Chvez was elected in 1998, former President Carlos Andrs Prez nationalized the countrys oil reserves the largest in the world in 1976. Chvez increased state control over the oil industry and expropriated international oil company assets.

Chvezs precedent of using the countrys natural resources including Venezuelas substantial reserves of natural gas, iron ore, bauxite, gold, coal, and diamonds to fund social programs, rather than handing them over for private profit, is anathema to the US. Not only does the imperiumlust over the oilfor its own corporations, but control of such strategic resources are geopolitically critical for maintaining global dominance.

Venezuela has also been a leader in promoting regional unity that is independent of the US, forging alliances such asCELCAandALBA. It is a close ally with Nicaragua and Cuba, also on the US enemies list. ThroughOPEC,Friends in Defense of the UN Charter, and other initiatives, Venezuela has encouraged Latin American unity with Africa and Asia. Venezuela has strategic partnerships withChinaandRussiaand is close toIran. A champion of Palestine, it broke relations with Israel in 2009. Venezuela also supports an emergingmultilateral international community.

For all these offenses, the Bolivarian Revolutions existence is insufferable to the Yankee hegemonto be crushed.

The guard rails are down

Trump is operating with virtually zero institutional constraints. A mere fivecongressional Democratsrecently awoke from their slumber to send a letter meekly suggesting that presidential powers are not limitless. But the Senate just voted against a war powers resolution to constrain attacks on Venezuela.

Democrat representatives on the House Foreign Affairs Committeepostedon X: Trump and Rubio are pushing for regime change in Venezuela. The American people dont want another war. However, their colleagues in the Senate provided a unanimous mandate to the very same Republicans who ran on aMaduro must goplatform. They rushed to do so, without debate, in the very first hours of the new administration.

Within the bipartisan consensus for regime change in Venezuela, the differences are cosmetic. The Democrats would prefer to overthrow the sovereign state legally. Truthoutreportsthat some senior Democrats warned fellow members against opposing Trumps war, saying that it would be tantamount to throwing their support behind Maduro. If the Republicans precipitate an attack, the Democrats at best will agree with the ends but not the means.

The follow-the-flag press prepares public opinion for a strike

On September 26, NBC News reportedfrom the White Housethat the US is planning strikes inside Venezuela. The one-minute video is actually of a guy standing in the street outside the White House, claiming that he had chatted with four unidentified sources. Subsequently, this unsubstantiated scoop went viral, picked up by almost every major corporate press outlet.

The New York Timeseditorialized: Mr. Trump has grown frustrated with Mr. Maduros failure to accede to American demands to give up power voluntarily and the continued insistence by Venezuelan officials that they have no part in drug trafficking. What doesnt occur to these Pentagon scribes, is that neither has Mr. Trump shown any enthusiasm for giving up power voluntarily or even admitting to thedocumented conclusionby the US in drug trafficking.

In one of its typical propaganda pieces trying to pass as a news story, theTimestells us "what we know" about Washingtons offensive against Venezuela: "the endgame remains opaque." Apparently, they don't know jack, because the endgame is regime change. In remarks aimed at Venezuela, Mr. Trumpthreatened: We will blow you out of existence.

All the elements are in place for a strike inside Venezuela

• Diplomatic relations with Venezuela have been broken since 2019.
• In 2020, the US indicted President Maduro for narco-terrorism, placing a $15 million bounty on him, subsequently raised to $25m and now $50m.
• On January 20, Trump took office. Executive Order 14157 declared a national emergency and designated international drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) and specially designated global terrorists, citing authority under the Alien Enemies Act.
• By February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that FTOs posed an existential threat and laid the groundwork for treating cartels allegedly linked to President Maduro as enemy combatants.
• In May, the administration opened the path to use military force against FTOs.
• Then in July, a secret directive authorized military operations against FTOs at sea and on foreign soil.
• By August, the US launched a massive naval deployment off the coast of Venezuela. By October, troop deploymentreportedlyreached 10,000.
• On September 2, the US blew up the first of four or five alleged drug boats in international waters off of Venezuela, resulting in extrajudicial murders of the crews.
• By mid-September, the Pentagon notified Congress under the War Powers Resolution that US forces were engaged in a non-international armed conflict with drug cartels.
• This was followed on October 1 by the Defense Departments confidential memo and more congressional briefings that the US was engaged in armed conflict.
• Trump thenterminatedthe last back-channel diplomatic contacts with Venezuela.

If the international community cant halt the ongoing US/zionist genocide in Palestine, the Yankee juggernaut faces little effective resistance in the Caribbean.A US attack inside Venezuela is imminent!

Roger D. Harris, a founding member of theVenezuela Solidarity Network, is on the board of theTask Force on the Americasand on the secretariat of theUS Peace Council.

Pressenza New York